Briefing Book: Lewisboro's electoral math

Written by J.D. Piro
Wednesday, 16 September 2009 23:00

How many votes does it take to win a seat on the Lewisboro Town Board? Which party has done better in reaching that total? What makes the difference?

In an effort to answer those three questions, the political junkies here at Briefing Book have completed an in-depth analysis of this decade’s four Town Board elections, save for the off-year 2006 election. Briefing Book found that in every Town Board election in this decade, Democrats have consistently turned out their voters and outperformed expectations. In contrast, Republicans have underperformed expectations and left their voters at home.

Here’s what the data show:

2001 — The GOP swept all three Town Board positions, garnering an average of 1,715 votes to a paltry average of 1,332 votes for candidates Allen Hershkowitz and Thomas Falconer. The clueless leaders of the Republican Town Committee crowed over this romp, but Republican committee upstarts noted the warning signs of a coming Democratic wave. The team of Hershkowitz and Falconer lacked a major party-line that year (the Democrats had left their slate blank), yet they still garnered 44% of the vote as independent candidates. Mr. Hershkowitz won in 2003, while Mr. Falconer went on to serve as The Ledger’s inaugural liberal columnist.

2003 — The GOP wipeout, predicted in 2001 by the more astute members of the Republican committee, came to pass. The Democrats averaged 1,925 votes in the Town Board races — a gain of 600 votes over their 2001 totals. The GOP, this time facing major-party opponents, averaged just 1,597 votes. In the next two elections, the Democratic vote total would hold fairly steady, while the Republican vote totals would fluctuate wildly.

2005 — In the year of “homeowner rights,” the Republican candidates averaged 2,072 votes, almost 500 votes better than their 2003 totals. But the Democrats showed solid electoral strength, averaging 1,909 votes in a losing effort. It was a turnout election, and the GOP did a slightly better job than the Democrats.

2007 — The Democrats swept the Town Board for the first time in years, with an average total of 1,839 votes, just 100 votes below their 2005 average. The GOP vote fell off a cliff, dropping to its lowest total this decade — an average of 1,371 votes, just slightly better than independent candidates Hershkowitz and Falconer got in 2003.

Three lessons come out of these numbers:

First, how many votes does it take to win a seat on the Lewisboro Town Board? Generally speaking, a successful candidate needs to win somewhere between 1,800 and 1,900 votes. That rule of thumb had one exception this decade — Democrat Dan Welsh, who won in 2007 with roughly 1,666 votes. But it holds true for the rest of the decade, at least when Democrats and Republicans ran candidates. (For that reason, we exclude the 2001 race, in which Messrs. Hershkowitz and Falconer were third-party candidates.)

Second, which political party has done better this decade at hitting that crucial 1,800- to 1,900-vote threshold? The answer is the Democrats, who have averaged 1,891 votes the last three elections, again excluding the 2001 race. Even in 2005, the year of the last Republican sweep, the Democratic candidates still managed to win an average of more than 1,900 votes. That total would have been enough to win a Town Board seat in any other year. But in 2005, Republicans averaged 2,072 votes, outperforming their average vote total in this decade of just 1,689 votes.

So the last question is this: What makes the difference? The difference lies not just in getting your party members to the polls — the Republicans failed miserably at that in 2003 and 2007 — but in winning over Lewisboro’s unaffiliated voters. Lewisboro’s political parties are at rough parity in the number of party members, with Democrats holding a slight edge over Republicans. Assuming each party holds its base, electoral victory goes to the party that can win unaffiliated voters.

Republicans have woken up to these facts after the 2007 debacle. The GOP is building an active Web site and using social networking sites like Facebook to contact voters. The Republicans are also holding more fund-raisers earlier than in 2007. Sources tell Briefing Book that Republican fund raising is way up over 2007.

For the first time in Lewisboro electoral history, the GOP enters a Town Board race as the minority party. A loss this year could keep the Republicans in permanent minority status for years to come. Will the Republicans follow the lessons of 2005 or 2007? Stay tuned.

---

Add this page to your favorite Social Bookmarking websites