Study shows continuing decline in enrollment

Written by Marla Hoffman
Thursday, 05 November 2009 11:25

Last year School Supt. Dr. Colleen Palmer presented enrollment projections for the next 10 years, showing a sizable decrease in the number of students attending schools in the district.

This week Palmer presented an updated report to the Board of Education, showing a projected steady decline each year up to 2019. It was complied by Dr. Peter M. Prowda of the state Department of Education.

Palmer said a report should be conducted every one to three years to give the administration and the Board of Education a handle on how the district is trending, thus prompting conversations about what preemptive action might be taken.

According to Palmer, the purpose of the report is two-fold: to help determine where the district is in terms of enrollment and to help the district look at where it’s going, specifically with regard to building use.

Palmer said her office has received numerous inquiries, going all the way back to last year’s budget cycle, about whether it would be feasible to close a school next year in an effort to save money.

“We do not feel this is possible with the slight drop that is expected,” she said. “We will not be recommending that the district close a school next year.”

Monroe’s six public schools have a combined enrollment of 3,900 for the 2009-10 school year. The study shows that enrollment is expected to slip to 3,839 next year; 3,679 in 2011-12; 3,554 in 2012-13, and so on.

In 2019, the study shows enrollment at 2,859 students, more than 1,000 fewer students than the current year.

Palmer said the district could not reasonably consider closing a school until at least 2014, when enrollment is expected to be nearly 500 fewer students than today.

“Maybe, if the trends continues, it could be possible five or six years down the road,” she said. “Closing schools and rearranging the district is a huge initiative, and it would not be prudent for next year.”

Even combining the three elementary schools into two in 2014 would be tight, she said, based on the numbers, as well as the capacity of the schools and classrooms. Any unexpected increases in enrollment would cause major disruptions if the town decided to close a school before the district was ready.

When making projections, researchers look at statistics over the last 10 years and forecasts for the economic climate over the next 10 years.

The study considers factors such as trends in birth rates, home sales, student migration, charter school and non-public school enrollment, and even the number housing permits issued.

But making the projections is not an exact science, said Palmer. For example, when the study was done last year, the district anticipated enrollment for the 2009-10 school year to be 3,947 students — meaning the actual enrollment for this school year (3,900) is 47 less than what was projected.

Also, the 2008 report showed 2018’s enrollment to be 2,945 — the new report predicts 2,913.

As the economy changes, Palmer said the school board should expect the numbers to vary from year to year. This is why, she said, she is recommending the study be done each year so the board can monitor how the district is trending.

“This is a good guide document,” she said. “I thought we should get this document out in advance of the budget, so when people see the budget some of their questions might be answered.”