Sharp decline expected in school enrollment

Written by Justin Reynolds
Wednesday, 28 October 2009 12:56

If Ellen Essman’s public school enrollment predictions are correct — and since 1983, Wilton’s cumulative enrollment projections have been off by 0.058% — Wilton’s schools will have fewer students walk through their doors each of the next nine school years, dropping enrollment 13% by 2018.

“This is actually a national trend noted in a Connecticut report put out in 2007,” Ms. Essman, a consultant to the schools, told members of the Board of Education Thursday night. “Districts on average between then and 2020 are expected to decline by 16.6 or 17%.”

“On average, Wilton will probably be declining close to 13% from now to 2018,” she said.

According to Ms. Essman’s projections, Wilton’s enrollment will shrink by 589 students by the 2018-2019 school year, from the currently enrolled 4,297 to a projected enrollment of 3,708, a decrease in enrollment of 13.8%.

Board member Jim Saxe asked Ms. Essman how confident she was that the district would service fewer than 4,000 students by 2014-15 and 2015-16.

“We will be dipping in that time frame below 4,000 students,” she said.

“It just looks like the trend could be more than the 13%,” Mr. Saxe said. “I think that’s a significant number we ought to be looking at because it’s not too many years out.”

Ms. Essman said the purpose of her projections “is really simply to provide a basis for next year’s school budget.”

“Definitely as the population declines, there will be decisions needed to be made about resources,” Ms. Essman said. “I think we’ve peaked and we’re in a decline now.”

The following are Ms. Essman’s kindergarten through 12th grade — not including pre-school or local students enrolled outside the district — enrollment projections:

• 2010-2011, 4,265 students

• 2011-2012, 4,203 students

• 2012-2013, 4,149 students

• 2013-2014, 4,075 students

• 2014-2015, 4,018 students

• 2015-2016, 3,934 students

• 2016-2017, 3,847 students

• 2017-2018, 3,790 students

• 2018-2019, 3,708 students.